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1/ The numbers for "mobile advertisment" I heard at the CTIA varied from $600M in 2012 to over $8 billion in 2013. Quite a range, so my research might be wide off.
2/ $4.86 could be a lot more if the market is saturated - if (localized) ads at this point don't increase the churn rate.
3/ $4.86 per year is a lot if the average subscriber revenue per year is $0. Point is: if a non mobile operator is looking for a business model for providing a mobile phone that is purely supported through "add-on" services, this might be one of them. Google could come out with a Google phone (as rumors have it) and have it "subsidized" through WiFi sharing, music, news, eReader, collaboration, cloud storage and backup, and advertisement... Advertising revenues made up 97% of Google revenues for the six months ended June 30, 2009 - about $11b, 53% of that comes from outside the US. If you believe http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/google.com statistics, about 35% of all global Internet users visited Google last month, at about 9 pageviews per user per day, and about 141M US users visited Google last month (if you believe the estimates of http://www.quantcast.com/google.com). In effect, we're looking at an monthly US ARPU of $6.19 - without any one of us paying for it (other than through the costs of our goods that require Google advertisement to sell... nothing's for free). The resulting annual US ARPU at Google is about $74. we're getting there, with all the book stores and music stores announced...